Bitcoin (BTC) is now 195 days into its latest sideways movement, which is part of a broader two-year stretch marked by sluggish price action and short-lived rallies. According to a crypto analyst, just 36 days of meaningful gains have defined this cycle, while the rest have been a relentless grind. Still, despite the clear market fatigue and repeated new lows, the analyst insists that the cycle isn’t over yet.  Bitcoin Cycle Sees Only 36 Days Of Real Gains The current Bitcoin market cycle is being closely examined, as a new analysis by expert analyst Crypto Con delves deep into the cryptocurrency’s past movements, revealing two full years of sideways price action with only brief periods of upward momentum. The analyst’s chart, titled “Cycle 4 Ranges and Expansions,” highlights a pattern of prolonged range-bound activity interrupted by short bursts of expansion. As of now, Crypto Con notes that Bitcoin has been consolidating for 195 consecutive days since December 18, 2024, without setting a new local high. The chart analysis shows that the total time spent in actual upward expansion in the entire cycle is just 5.76 months. Even more interesting is the fact that when isolating the days in which Bitcoin recorded new local highs, the number shrinks to just 36 days.  According to the market expert, these expansion bursts are responsible for all of Bitcoin’s significant price increases during its current cycle. Every expansion phase has also occurred within extremely narrow windows—typically just two to five days long. The rest of the cycle after this has been characterized by a consistent sluggish grind and long stretches of price consolidation, where momentum fades and the market struggles to advance.  Flattened Price Action Hides Cycles’ Underlying Strength A closer look at the bottom section of Crypto Con’s chart, which removes the expansion bursts, shows how Bitcoin’s price has essentially remained flat or trended lower throughout the cycle. Major sideways phases in 2023 and 2024 lasted 192 days and 238 days, respectively, offering minimum sustained upside. The current 2025 range has now extended close to 200 days, continuing the trend of market inactivity.  Despite the drawn-out stagnation, Crypto Con maintains that this cycle is not over yet. He implies that Bitcoin’s prolonged accumulation and consolidation could be building pressure for a significant breakout. The chart also shows Bitcoin’s next potential upside target between $165,000 and $180,000. Currently the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $106,990, meaning a jump anywhere between these targets would represent price  increase of over 54%.  If previous patterns hold, BTC’s next major move may arrive swiftly, as past expansions have delivered their impact in just a few trading sessions. Until that moment arrives, Bitcoin remains locked in what is shaping up to be the slowest and possibly the most patient-testing cycle to date.

A crypto analyst has revealed a significant disconnect between the Bitcoin price peak and the continued expansion of the Global M2 money supply. In his analysis, he shares a surprising comparison that raises fresh questions about the true drivers of the crypto bull market and how liquidity trends impact price cycles.  Bitcoin Price Moves Ahead Of Global M2 A recent analysis by Rekt Capital, a crypto expert on X (formerly Twitter), draws attention to a critical timing mismatch between the Bitcoin price movements and global liquidity levels, measured by the Global M2 money supply. According to the data, Bitcoin reached an all-time high in November 2021, marking the peak of the bull market. However, Global M2 continued to rise for another five months, finally topping out in April 2022. This five-month divergence has prompted a reevaluation of Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro indicators and its ability to act as a leading macroeconomic signal. Rekt Capital’s analysis implies that while liquidity conditions heavily influence Bitcoin, it does not necessarily move in lockstep with them. Instead, it may anticipate shifts in monetary policy and investor sentiment before they fully play out in traditional finance indicators like the money supply. While Bitcoin had already begun its decline following its peak in November 2021, the expansion of the global money supply persisted, indicating that central banks and financial systems were still operating under loose monetary conditions well into 2022. Notably, Rekt Capital’s analysis does not imply a direct cause-and-effect relationship but highlights a clear time lag between Bitcoin’s price behavior and global liquidity trends. This places BTC in a unique position in the financial landscape, as both a liquidity-sensitive asset and a potential early warning signal to broader market changes. BTC And Global M2 Set Stage For September Surge Crypto Con, a crypto analyst on X, has also shared insights into the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and changes in the Global M2 money supply, indicating the potential for a major upside move in the leading cryptocurrency. The chart, published on June 25, presents a side-by-side comparison of Bitcoin’s historical performance with a 10-week forward-shifted Global M2 metric.  The chart’s data reveals a recurring pattern where the Global M2 expanded, and Bitcoin followed with a rally approximately ten weeks later. Conversely, contractions in M2 preceded Bitcoin’s price declines by the same time frame. This trend was observed during several key turning points in the market cycle.  In April 2023, a significant decline in M2 was followed by a Bitcoin price downturn. A reversal and increase in M2 around March 2024 corresponded with the start of a sustained Bitcoin rally. Similarly, the December 2024 peak in M2 anticipated a Bitcoin correction several weeks later. Based on this trend, current conditions remain favorable. The forward-shifted Global M2 continues to show an upward trajectory, implying that Bitcoin may experience more upside movement through early September 2025.