• With $3 billion Bitcoin (BTC) options expiry looming, analysts have predicted that the asset faces a downside risk as the “Max Pain” lies at $106k, below the current price. 
• Analysts have also predicted that the asset could recapture the $111k level if it holds above the $108k level.

Bitcoin (BTC) could witness short-term price swings as option contracts worth $3 billion are set to expire today, July 4. According to data, the “Max Pain” is $106k, and the price could move towards this level. Technically, option buyers are expected to experience the maximum loss at this point while sellers experience the least of the total amount of loss. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action and Potential Movements Pending this interesting moment, Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded a 0.37% decline on its 24-hour price chart to move from its daily high of $110,541 to $108,930 at press time. According to CoinMarketCap data, the 24-hour trading volume has also declined by 13% with $48.9 billion changing hands. Delving deep into the market, we discovered that there is a balanced scenario between bullish and bearish bets with the put-to-call ratio fixed at 1.05. Analysts believe that while this level suggests uncertainty, there is a high downside risk as long as the price stays above the Max Pain level. In the meantime, Bitcoin is still holding above its short-term support levels of the 20-day and 10-day moving averages. Also, there is a high buying strength as the asset trades near the top of the Bollinger Bands. While some momentum indicators also show signs of exhaustion, the MACD confirms the existence of an underlying strength. According to analysts, once Bitcoin falls below the current point to $107k, there is a high likelihood that the price could make an additional fall to $106k. Holding above the $108k could also see Bitcoin advancing into the $110k territory and subsequently into the $111k zone. As noted in our recent analysis, Bitcoin long-term holders have been advised to wait till $140k to “recapture the peak profit margin” recorded in the previous cycle. Basically, this level of growth could be fueled by the weakening dollar and market optimism as mentioned in our recent publication. Speaking on the overall market cycle, analyst Rekt Capital has warned that Bitcoin has only a few months left on its “bullish calendar.” Source: Rekt Capital Specifically, he believes that the market would peak in October if it follows the 2020 pattern. Many people are happy to throw away time-tested principles out the window, whereas it’s really important to rely on these sorts of metrics because they are not going to sway you as much as throwing everything out the window will. Analysts Speak on BTC Joining the Bitcoin discussion, a Canadian social media personality called Greg O’Gallagher has also predicted that Bitcoin could likely hit $250k this cycle. According to him, his prediction is based on historical trends, and the bull market could happen faster than anticipated. Fascinatingly, the CEO of Bitget, Gracy Chen, believes that the Bitcoin price could find a position within the $126k and the $190k range, as highlighted in our previous news article. However, Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow expects the price to rise explosively to $1 million by the end of the year, as also detailed in our earlier discussion.

Bitcoin is currently trading just below its all-time high of $112,000, caught in a tight range as both bulls and bears struggle to take control. While buyers have shown strength by consistently defending key support levels, they have yet to muster the momentum needed to break into price discovery. At the same time, sellers have failed to force a deeper correction, highlighting the market’s resilience. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with many leaning bullish amid improving macroeconomic conditions and risk-on sentiment in traditional markets. The recent strength in US equities has spilled into crypto, giving BTC a tailwind, yet not enough to trigger a decisive breakout. On-chain data adds further insight into this pivotal moment. According to CryptoQuant, the 30-day percentile of the Unrealized Profit/Loss (P/L) Ratio currently stands at 80%. This metric indicates that a significant majority of BTC holders are sitting on profits; yet, we remain below the historically extreme 90–100% zone associated with major selling pressure. This suggests that Bitcoin still has room to rally before holders begin aggressively taking profits. BTC Nears Breakout As Profits Accumulate Bitcoin is on the verge of a major breakout, rising 47% since its April lows and trading just under 2% away from its all-time high at $112,000. The broader market is heating up as macroeconomic uncertainty begins to fade — US equities continue to climb, bond volatility is dropping, and investor appetite for risk is returning. This has created a favorable backdrop for BTC, which has steadily reclaimed ground over the past two months. Bulls remain firmly in control, but a breakout into price discovery is still needed to confirm the start of a new expansive phase. Analysts widely agree that the coming days will be pivotal. A clean move above resistance could open the door for a rally to new highs, while a failure to hold key levels may force BTC into another consolidation. Top analyst Axel Adler shared a critical on-chain signal supporting the bullish outlook. According to Adler, the 30-day percentile of Bitcoin’s Unrealized Profit/Loss (P/L) Ratio currently stands at 80%. This means the ratio of coins held in profit to those in loss is significantly elevated — most holders are in the green. Historically, profit-taking accelerates only when the metric enters the 90–100% range. Since BTC is still below that overheated threshold, there’s additional room for upside before the market faces heavy sell pressure. As profit margins rise, so does the risk of volatility — but at this point, the data still favors the bulls. If the breakout comes soon, it could mark the beginning of a fresh leg higher and push BTC firmly into uncharted territory. BTC Pushes Toward Price Discovery Bitcoin continues to press against its all-time high resistance zone near $112,000, showing strength as it consolidates above the $109,000 level. The chart shows BTC making higher lows since mid-June, signaling that buyers remain firmly in control. The 3-day candle structure reflects a sustained uptrend following a clean bounce from the $103,600 support — a critical area that has now been tested multiple times since April. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $95,449 has consistently provided dynamic support throughout this phase, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs are trending steadily upward, reinforcing the broader bullish momentum. Volume remains healthy, although not yet explosive, indicating that a breakout above $112,000 may require stronger conviction or a catalyst. If Bitcoin manages to close decisively above the $109,300–$112,000 resistance band, it would open the door for a new leg into price discovery. On the downside, failure to hold above $109,000 could see a retest of the $103,600 zone. Overall, the structure remains bullish, with consolidation near highs suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. As long as BTC maintains this ascending pattern, the odds favor an eventual breakout, possibly sooner than expected. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

In a post on 27 June, crypto-market chartist Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX) warned that Bitcoin’s ostensibly bullish weekly structure may be concealing a latent “time bomb” that could detonate if bulls fail to force a decisive breakout over the next three to four weeks. The technician’s diagnosis hinges on a classic Ichimoku paradox: an expanding bullish kumo and a flat Kijun Sen on the weekly timeframe are clustering with a constellation of bearish warnings on the daily and two-day charts. Bitcoin Faces A July Time Bomb “Look at the weekly kumo: it’s expanding, widening,” Dr Cat began. “This means that bullish momentum is building for potential trend sustainability even though the trend is not active as Kijun Sen is flat.” The observation is significant because an enlarging kumo—formed by the Senkou Span A/B envelope—generally represents thickening support, making sudden breakdowns statistically less probable as long as the cloud keeps widening. At the same time, the Chikou Span (CS) is “above the candles without a gap,” but, Dr Cat cautioned, it has “4 weeks deadline to close above ATH or will enter the candles.” Should the lagging line be absorbed back into price, the textbook interpretation is a loss of bullish conviction at the largest visible scale. That ostensibly constructive weekly backdrop contrasts starkly with a “lot of red flags on the daily hinting for a bearish scenario which can escalate on many levels.” Among those alarms is the prospect of a death TK cross on the two-day chart, anticipated “tonight,” in which the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen—often the prelude to a down-leg when it materialises beneath the cloud. “So how do you interpret such conflicting information from different timeframes?” the analyst asked rhetorically, underscoring that traders who privilege only a single interval risk being blindsided. Dr Cat’s answer is a roadmap defined by time. Because the weekly cloud continues expanding, “it is hard for the price to dump a lot” immediately; historically, the kumo “needs first to become flat.” The flattening mechanism is mechanical: if Bitcoin fails to record a fresh all-time high “in 2 weeks from now,” roughly by the week that begins 14 July, the leading Senkou Span A numerator will stop rising, truncating cloud expansion. That in turn opens a window for gravity to reassert itself on the higher timeframe. Against that backdrop the analyst offered two conditional trajectories. First scenario: bearish signals on the lower charts mature. “The price will likely need at least 1.5 month or so for a very big dump on the weekly scale, because the weekly kumo will keep expanding for 2 more weeks,” Dr Cat wrote. During that holding period the market could “range around / just do small dumps to the $90s,” a reference to the high–$90 000 zone that has defined range lows since late spring. Should this grind continue beyond the second half of July without a structural shift on daily Ichimoku metrics, weekly momentum would invert: the kumo would cease expanding and the CS would dive into prior candles, removing two of the most durable layers of longer-term support. Second scenario: bulls seize the initiative. To “save the chart from the warning signs,” buyers must engineer “a higher high above the $110,600 high shortly after the 27th of June,” thereby invalidating the bearish daily setup and re-energising the top-down trend. Time is critical: after “the week starting on 14th of July,” the CS will approach prior candlesticks, making each subsequent failure to print a new high proportionally more damaging. Dr Cat locates a final decision node on “the Sunday of the week starting on the 14th of July”—20 July—when the interplay between a stalling cloud and an in-candle CS could arm an additional set of “red flags for bulls.” The post stops short of assigning explicit probability weightings to either outcome, but its construction implies that the market’s most consequential catalyst in mid-summer may not be macro data or ETF flows so much as a self-reflexive technical countdown visible to every chart-watcher who uses Ichimoku. With roughly three weeks remaining before the cloud loses upward curvature, participants must choose between forcing a breakout above $110,600 or bracing for a higher-time-frame correction that could test sub-$100 000 territory. Whether Bitcoin’s expanding cloud proves a shield or a trap is, by Dr Cat’s own framing, “hidden in plain sight.” For now, the bullish weekly silhouette buys bulls breathing-room, but the daily and two-day warnings ensure that every hour the asset trades side-ways the theoretical time bomb ticks louder. At press time, BTC traded at $106,778.

Bitcoin is up 10% since last Sunday, reclaiming key levels and setting the tone for what could be the next major leg in this bull cycle. After briefly dipping below $100,000 amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, BTC has rebounded strongly and is now trading above $106,000 — a level that signals renewed strength and market confidence. However, despite the breakout from recent lows, the rally still needs confirmation. Analysts agree that the bullish structure will only be fully validated once Bitcoin breaks above its all-time high and enters price discovery. Momentum is clearly shifting in favor of the bulls. Trading volumes are climbing, and investor sentiment is turning optimistic as BTC approaches the $110K resistance. Yet, not all indicators are aligned. According to CryptoQuant, the MVRV Ratio — which measures market value relative to realized value — is beginning to stall. Historically, this has preceded slower phases of growth or local tops. While a decisive breakout could trigger the next surge, the current hesitation in on-chain momentum suggests traders should remain alert. With volatility rising and macro uncertainty still present, BTC’s next move could define the broader market trend heading into the second half of the year. Bitcoin At A Crossroads: Will Bulls Break Out or Retrace? Bitcoin is hovering at a pivotal level, with the market on edge as it decides between a breakout into price discovery or a deeper retrace toward lower support. After rebounding 10% since last Sunday, BTC reclaimed the $106K level, recovering from recent volatility caused by geopolitical tensions. Bulls are confidently holding the range, yet momentum has stalled just below the crucial $110K mark — the gateway to new all-time highs. Meanwhile, bears have failed to push Bitcoin below the psychological $100K level, signaling strong underlying demand. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, while the short-term recovery looks impressive, the MVRV Ratio is flashing early warning signs. This metric — which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value — helps identify overvaluation zones. More importantly, the 365-day moving average slope of the MVRV Ratio, which has reliably signaled cycle tops in the past, is starting to flatten. This suggests that bullish momentum could be fading, even as prices hold up. This development doesn’t imply that a downtrend is imminent, but it does raise the possibility that Bitcoin is entering the late stages of this bull cycle. Historically, such phases often culminate in euphoric surges before topping out. With that in mind, traders and investors must remain strategic. Managing risk and capital allocation becomes critical when momentum weakens, especially in a high-stakes environment. While there’s still room for short-term upside — especially if BTC breaks above $110K — long-term signals advise caution. Tactical plays may be profitable, but ignoring macro and on-chain context at this stage could expose portfolios to unnecessary risk. BTC Faces Local Resistance Bitcoin is currently trading at $107,227, showing strong recovery momentum after last week’s dip to $98,000. The 12-hour chart reveals a bullish structure, with price breaking above the 50 and 100-period SMAs, both converging around $105,500 — now acting as near-term support. The move confirms bullish intent, especially as volume picked up significantly on the breakout from the $103,600 support zone. However, BTC is now approaching a critical resistance level at $109,300, which has acted as a ceiling for over a month. Price action suggests multiple failed attempts to break this level, forming what many traders would call a local “horizontal range.” A clean break and close above $109,300 would likely trigger a push into price discovery, with bulls targeting $115,000 and beyond. On the downside, a rejection at current levels could lead to a retest of the $105,000 support. The 200-period SMA around $96,365 remains the ultimate support base in case of a deeper correction. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView