Bitcoin is facing renewed volatility as it struggles to break above the $112,000 all-time high. After weeks of consolidation near record levels, market participants are watching closely for a decisive move that could signal the next major trend. Bullish momentum remains intact, but hesitation at key resistance keeps both sides on edge. Macroeconomic conditions are adding fuel to the speculation. The US Congress recently passed President Donald Trump’s long-awaited legislative bill—dubbed the “big, beautiful” bill—just ahead of the self-imposed July 4 deadline. In parallel, the latest job market data beat expectations, signaling a stronger-than-expected economy and boosting risk appetite across global markets. In the derivatives space, CryptoQuant data shows that the 90-day change in open interest (OI) has turned negative—a historically significant signal. When this metric dips below zero, it often indicates capitulation among traders and forced liquidations, which tend to cool off leverage and reset the market for healthier price action. As Bitcoin navigates this volatile mix of technical resistance and shifting macro tailwinds, the coming days could be decisive in determining whether a breakout above $112K is imminent or if another correction lies ahead. Traders remain alert as the stakes continue to rise. Bitcoin Inches Closer To Breakout As Bulls Tighten Grip Bitcoin bulls remain firmly in control, but a decisive breakout into price discovery is still needed to confirm the next leg of the rally. After climbing 47% since its April lows, Bitcoin now trades less than 2% below its $112,000 all-time high. The market is heating up, driven by waning macroeconomic uncertainty, strong equities performance, and growing investor optimism. However, with resistance so close, the next few days will be pivotal. A firm push above the all-time high could unlock a powerful expansion phase, while failure to break through may lead to a corrective retrace. Analysts are closely watching both technical and on-chain data to gauge the next move. Top analyst Darkfost shared key insights into derivatives activity, highlighting the importance of tracking the 90-day change in open interest (OI). This metric gives a snapshot of how leveraged the market is. When the 90d OI percentage flips negative, it typically signals mass liquidations or capitulation among overexposed traders, resulting in a sharp drop in open interest. According to Darkfost, these deleveraging events—especially during bull markets—have consistently created attractive opportunities to build long positions or dollar-cost average (DCA) in the spot market. They reduce risk by flushing out weak hands and clearing excessive leverage. With current data showing a recent dip in OI followed by stabilization, many traders view this as a potential reset ahead of a breakout. As Bitcoin consolidates near historic highs, the stage is set. Either bulls push beyond resistance and into uncharted territory, or bears gain temporary control. For now, momentum favors the upside—but confirmation remains key. BTC Price Action Remains Range-Bound Below ATH Bitcoin continues to trade below the key resistance at $109,300, as seen on the 4-hour chart. After failing to establish a clear breakout above this level, the price has retreated slightly to around $109,010 at the time of writing. The zone between $108K and $109.3K has become a critical area of consolidation, with both bulls and bears fighting for short-term control. The 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are all trending upward and converging near the $106K–$106.5K region, providing strong dynamic support. Price remains above these moving averages, suggesting a bullish structure remains intact despite the recent stalling. Volume has decreased during the recent leg up, hinting at potential exhaustion, but not necessarily a reversal. A retest of the $109.3K resistance or a breakdown toward the $106K–$105K support zone could occur before any decisive move. The lower support at $103,600 continues to serve as a key level that, if broken, could signal a deeper retrace. For now, Bitcoin is in a tight consolidation range, and traders are waiting for a breakout above $109.3K or a breakdown below $106K to determine the next trend direction. Until then, volatility and uncertainty are likely to persist. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal point in its cycle, reclaiming the $110,000 level in a strong bullish move that reignites hopes of a fresh leg higher. After months of consolidation and volatility, the leading cryptocurrency is now testing critical resistance, with analysts watching closely for a breakout into price discovery. A move beyond current highs could mark the beginning of an expansive phase that drives broader market momentum. Top analyst Axel Adler shared new data underscoring renewed trader confidence. Following record spikes in open interest (OI) — with growth of 79% in spring 2024, 59% in autumn, and 36% in May — the last 30 days have seen a notable shift. OI change has moved from a negative -9% to a positive +5%, signaling that traders are once again building futures positions, albeit with more caution and less leverage than in past phases. This shift in derivatives positioning comes as macro conditions improve and risk appetite gradually returns to the crypto space. However, bulls will need a catalyst — whether technical or macroeconomic — to breach resistance and sustain a breakout. The coming days could define Bitcoin’s trajectory for the remainder of the quarter. Bulls Eye Breakout As Bitcoin Nears All-Time Highs Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment as it flirts with its $112,000 all-time high. With bullish momentum accelerating, many investors believe the market is preparing for a new expansive phase. However, as BTC trades near record levels, the risks of a failed breakout grow. Sentiment remains broadly positive, supported by rising equity markets and a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty. Yet, analysts warn that unless Bitcoin decisively clears resistance soon, the probability of a correction into lower levels will increase. The US stock market hitting new all-time highs adds to the optimism, often acting as a tailwind for crypto. Still, a breakout above $112K will require more than technical strength — it needs a catalyst. Axel Adler points to the derivatives market for early signs of conviction. Open interest (OI) growth, which saw record spikes of 79% in spring 2024, 59% in autumn, and 36% in May, has now moved from -9% to +5% over the past 30 days. This shift suggests traders are cautiously re-entering the market, though with less aggressive leverage. Bears, meanwhile, are expected to defend the ATH zone. For bulls to succeed, a strong narrative — such as presidential support, dovish Fed signals, or macro triggers — may be necessary to awaken risk appetite and send Bitcoin decisively into price discovery. BTC Price Action: Near Breakout Point The 12-hour BTC/USDT chart shows Bitcoin attempting a critical breakout above the $109,300 resistance level. After multiple rejections in June and early July, BTC has once again surged, printing a strong candle that now flirts with price discovery just below the $112,000 all-time high. Momentum has shifted in favor of the bulls after a successful defense of the $103,600 support zone, which coincided with a bounce off the 100 and 50-day SMAs, currently converging around the $106,200 level. This moving average cluster acted as dynamic support, validating short-term bullish strength. Volume also increased slightly during the recent push, a positive signal after weeks of fading conviction. A clean and sustained break above $109,300 would open the path toward retesting ATHs and potentially entering a new expansive phase. However, traders should be cautious of potential fakeouts. This level has acted as a firm resistance for nearly two months, and a rejection could send BTC back toward the $106,000 support cluster or even the $103,600 level. For now, bulls hold the upper hand, but follow-through above resistance with rising volume will be key to confirm a true breakout and continuation toward new highs. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Data shows the Bitcoin Open Interest on the cryptocurrency exchange Binance has recently shot up. What could this mean for the asset’s price? Bitcoin Binance Open Interest Has Seen A Sharp Increase As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Open Interest on Binance has spiked. The “Open Interest” refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of BTC positions that are currently open on a given derivatives platform. When the value of the metric goes up, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the market. As the total amount of leverage present in the sector rises when new positions appear, this kind of trend can lead to the asset’s price becoming more volatile. On the other hand, the indicator observing a decline suggests the holders are either closing up positions of their own volition or getting liquidated by their platform. Since leverage goes down with such a trend, the cryptocurrency can become more stable following it. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 24-hour percentage change of the Bitcoin Open Interest for the Binance exchange over the past month: As displayed in the above graph, the 24-hour change in the Binance Bitcoin Open Interest recently shot up to a notably positive value, implying the number of positions on the platform saw a significant jump. At the peak of this spike, the indicator hit a value of more than 6%. From the chart, it’s visible that there have been a couple of other occasions that the metric has breached this mark during the past month. Interestingly, each of these spikes coincided with points that preceded a period of consolidation/decline for Bitcoin. As the quant notes, This recurring pattern suggests that large inflows into leveraged positions often precede periods where short-term gains are realized, leading to potential price pullbacks or sideways movement as market participants de-risk. The analyst has also shared another chart, this one tracking the 7-day change in the Realized Cap of the short-term holders and long-term holders. The “Realized Cap” refers to an indicator that keeps track of the capital that the holders have invested into Bitcoin. Below is a chart that shows the change in this metric for two investor cohorts, short-term holders (holding time of 155 days or lesser) and long-term holders (holding time greater than 155 days). As is apparent from the graph, the 7-day change in the Realized Cap has recently been positive for long-term holders, which suggests capital has been maturing from the short-term holders into this cohort. That said, earlier in the month, the indicator hit a peak of $57 billion, but today it has come down to just $3.5 billion. So, while capital is still aging into long-term holders, it’s now happening at a much slower rate. BTC Price Bitcoin has been attempting to break past the $108,000 mark, but so far, it hasn’t found success as its price is still trading around $107,200.