Bitcoin is up 45% since bottoming out near $75,000 in April and is now trading just under 4% away from its all-time high of $112,000. After weeks of consolidation and multiple failed breakout attempts, the market is entering a critical phase. Price action in the coming days will likely determine the next major move—either a clean push into price discovery or a pullback into key support levels around $103,600 and $100,000. Momentum has been building steadily, with bullish sentiment returning as macro conditions stabilize. However, investors remain cautious, awaiting confirmation from Bitcoin’s price structure before making aggressive moves. Data from CryptoQuant adds another layer to the current setup. The 30-day change in Bitcoin’s active supply percentage is sitting at -17%, a significant drop in activity. This metric tracks whether more or fewer coins are moving compared to a month ago. The current reading suggests declining on-chain activity, often a sign of market hesitation or long-term holders stepping back. Bitcoin On the Edge of Expansion As On-Chain Metrics Flash Opportunity The crypto market is heating up alongside US equities, which recently surged to new all-time highs. As macroeconomic uncertainty fades and risk appetite returns, Bitcoin sits at a pivotal moment. Bulls remain in control after a 45% rally from April’s $75K low, but to confirm the next leg up, BTC must decisively break into price discovery above the $112K resistance level. A key on-chain metric suggests that conditions are aligning for such a move. Axel Adler explains that the “% Supply Active, 30D Change” tracks the percentage growth or decline in Bitcoin’s active supply over the past month. It measures how much of the supply has moved in the last six months and compares it to the same figure 30 days ago. When this value is positive, coin movement is accelerating—typically seen during high-volatility uptrends. When it’s negative, activity is slowing down, signaling accumulation or hesitation. Currently, this value stands at -17%, indicating a marked drop in activity. That may seem bearish on the surface, but it mirrors the conditions seen in September 2024, just before a major rally began. The logic is simple: when fewer coins move and supply becomes more static, a tightening effect builds. Once demand returns, it often leads to sharp upward moves. In short, the low activity hints at a potential breakout window. Bitcoin is consolidating just below its all-time high, supported by favorable macro conditions and low on-chain velocity. If history is any guide, a sudden surge in activity—triggered by a move into new highs—could mark the beginning of the next expansion phase. All eyes are now on BTC’s next move. BTC Weekly Chart Analysis: Bullish Momentum Builds Below All-Time Highs Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows continued strength as price action consolidates just below the $112,000 all-time high. At the time of writing, BTC trades near $107,795, comfortably above the critical support zone at $103,600 and showing consistent higher lows since April. The 50-week moving average is rising sharply and now sits at $85,961, well below the current range, reinforcing the medium-term uptrend. Despite recent rejections near the $109,300 resistance, bulls have defended weekly closes above $100K and maintained momentum within a tight bullish flag structure. Volume has tapered off slightly, suggesting that traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to large positions. However, the lack of aggressive selling pressure indicates that market participants expect a breakout rather than a breakdown. If BTC breaks and closes above $109,300 on the weekly timeframe, the move would likely trigger stop orders and momentum-driven buying, pushing the price into uncharted territory. A failure to break resistance could result in another retest of the $103,600 level, which has acted as a strong floor throughout Q2 2025. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

On-chain data shows Bitcoin activity has seen a major cooldown over the past month. What does history say about what could be next for BTC? Active Bitcoin Supply Has Seen A Similar Drawdown As In September 2024 As pointed out by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. in a new post on X, the 30-day change in the Bitcoin % Supply Active has recently been negative. This on-chain indicator measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the cryptocurrency’s circulating supply that became involved in some kind of transaction activity over a given period. In the context of the current topic, the time window in question is 180 days. Below is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the 30-day change of the Bitcoin % Supply Active over the last few years. From the graph, it’s visible that the 30-day change in Bitcoin % Supply Active shot up to a sharp positive level late last year as BTC’s bull run played out, indicating that a large amount of supply dormant for more than six months started becoming active again. A similar trend was also witnessed in the rally from Q1 2024. This pattern isn’t anything surprising, as activity on the blockchain tends to go up as a rally captures the attention of the masses. Interestingly, the return above $100,000 earlier in the year couldn’t trigger any such reaction from the sector. And as the price has consolidated above this level since then, the 30-day change has even plummeted deep into the negative zone, suggesting holders have been losing interest. At present, the metric is sitting at a value of -17%, meaning that 17% less of the 180-day supply is active today compared to a month ago. While this suggests a major cooldown of attention around the network, the development may not be so bad if historical precedent is to go by. As Adler Jr has highlighted in the chart, the 30-day % Supply Active saw a similar plummet back in September. What followed this market boredom was sharp bullish momentum for Bitcoin. In the temporary bearish period that came after the May 2021 crash, a similar pattern led into the second half of that year’s bull market. However, the 30-day change didn’t become as negative back then. It now remains to be seen whether anything like in the past would follow for Bitcoin this time as well, or if the cooldown in price and activity is here to stay for a while. BTC Price Bitcoin saw a retrace into the low $105,000 levels yesterday, but it appears the asset’s sideways dance remains rigid as its price is already back at $107,200.