Bitcoin Magazine

If Institutions Are Buying Why Isn’t The Bitcoin Price Going Up? ETF inflows and institutional purchases continue to climb, yet many investors are puzzled by the muted Bitcoin price action. With billions flowing into BTC, why aren’t we seeing the price explode to new highs? The reality is more nuanced than it first appears. Bitcoin ETF Inflows Looking at the ETF cumulative inflows chart (excluding GBTC outflows), it’s clear that demand from institutional players has been robust. Since the most recent pullback in late March, net ETF inflows have climbed from roughly 527,000 BTC to over 630,000 BTC, an increase of around 100,000 BTC in under 3 months. These are significant numbers, yet the Bitcoin price has largely mainly drifted sideways since the start of 2025. Figure 1: The ETFs have had  ~100,000 BTC of net inflows in the past quarter. View Live Chart It’s important to remember that not all ETF flows represent “institutional” buying in the purest sense. Many ETF purchases come from client allocations, for example, family offices or high-net-worth individuals using platforms like BlackRock. Still, these flows matter, and the steady accumulation is a positive driver for long-term supply and demand dynamics. Bitcoin Treasury Buying Complementing ETF inflows, corporate treasury buying has also been strong, with (Micro)Strategy leading the charge. MSTR alone have seen their holdings have jumped from roughly 528,000 BTC to over 592,000 BTC in this year alone. Across all treasury companies tracked, total holdings now exceed 823,000 BTC, representing an astounding $86 billion in value. Figure 2: Companies like Strategy have accumulated billion of dollars of BTC in recent months. View Live Chart Despite this, many market participants feel underwhelmed by price action compared to prior cycles. But we must contextualize expectations: the BTC market cap is now in the multi-trillion-dollar range. The sheer scale of capital required to drive exponential moves today dwarfs previous cycles. Comparing this cycle to the 10x returns of earlier eras isn’t realistic. In truth, BTC has more than doubled from $40K at the time of ETF launch to recent levels above $110K, a still monumental achievement for a maturing asset class. Bitcoin Supply Overhang To understand why Bitcoin prices haven’t surged even further, we must examine selling behavior. By analyzing HODL Waves data for 1-5 year bands, we can quantify long-term holder profit-taking. Over the past three months, more than 240,000 BTC from these older bands has been distributed to the market, nearly a quarter-million BTC in net outflows. Figure 3: Over 240,000 BTC has been distributed by 1y – 5y holders in recent months. View Live Chart This selling has largely counterbalanced institutional accumulation. Given that daily miner issuance still adds another ~450 BTC to the market, we see why price has struggled to break higher: the market is in a state of supply-demand equilibrium. Meanwhile, open interest on BTC derivatives markets has exploded. From under $5B less than 3 years ago to over $25B today. Many new participants prefer are opting to trade “paper BTC” on derivatives rather than buying spot BTC, which reduces the positive influence on price of increased market participants. Figure 4: Over 240,000 BTC has been distributed by 1y – 5y holders in recent months. View Live Chart Bitcoin Bullish Shifts There is however now reason for optimism. Long-term holder selling is now decelerating, with recent net outflows falling below 1,000 BTC per day, a substantial reduction from previous monthly averages just weeks ago. If institutional inflows remain steady and retail demand starts to awaken, even at levels seen earlier this cycle rather than extreme prior peaks, we could easily see another powerful leg higher. Past instances show that when retail flows surge from these levels, BTC can double in price within months. Figure 5: Long-term holder profit taking has nearly reduced to 0 in recent weeks. Conclusion ETF inflows and treasury purchases are pouring billions of dollars into Bitcoin, but the muted Bitcoin price reaction makes perfect sense when viewed through the lens of supply and demand. Heavy profit-taking by long-term holders and growing derivatives speculation have balanced out the inflows. As long-term selling subsides and institutional buying continues, the stage is being set for the next bullish impulse. Whether we see the euphoric retail mania of prior cycles remains to be seen, but even modest retail inflows combined with current institutional demand could drive prices sharply higher sooner rather than later. Loved this deep dive into bitcoin price dynamics? Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis! Click Here To Subscribe To YouTube Channel For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. This post If Institutions Are Buying Why Isn’t The Bitcoin Price Going Up? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Are Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Starting to Sell? After a volatile start to 2025, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 mark, setting a new all-time high and injecting renewed confidence into the market. But as prices soar, a critical question arises: are some of Bitcoin’s most experienced and successful holders, the long-term investors, starting to sell? In this piece, we’ll analyze what on-chain data reveals about long-term holder behavior and whether recent profit-taking should be a cause for concern, or simply a healthy part of Bitcoin’s market cycle. Signs Of Profit-Taking Appear The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides immediate insight into realized profit across the network. Zooming in on recent weeks, we can observe a clear uptick in profit realization. Clusters of green bars indicate that a noticeable number of investors are indeed selling BTC for profit, especially following the price rally from the $74,000–$75,000 range to new highs above $100,000. Figure 1: The Spent Output Profit Ratio indicates notable recent profit realization. View Live Chart However, while this might raise short-term concerns about potential overhead resistance, it’s crucial to frame this in the broader on-chain context. This isn’t unusual behavior in bull markets and does not, on its own, signal a cycle peak. Long-Term Holder Supply Is Still Growing The Long-Term Holder Supply, the total amount of Bitcoin held by addresses for at least 155 days, continues to climb, even as prices surge. This metric doesn’t necessarily mean fresh accumulation is occurring now, but rather that coins are aging into long-term status without being moved or sold. Figure 2: Sharp increases in the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply. View Live Chart In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are holding strong, transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic typical of the earlier to mid-stages of bull markets, and not yet indicative of widespread distribution. HODL Waves Analysis To dig deeper, we use HODL Waves data, which breaks down BTC holdings by wallet age bands. When isolating wallets holding BTC for 6 months or more, we find that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently held by mid to long-term participants. Figure 3: HODL Waves analysis reveals mid- to long-term investors hold the majority of BTC. View Live Chart Interestingly, while this number remains high, it has started to decrease slightly, indicating that a portion of long-term holders may be selling even as the long-term holder supply increases. The primary driver of the long-term holder supply growth appears to be short-term holders aging into the 155+ day bracket, not fresh accumulation or large-scale buying. Figure 4: The inverse correlation between long-term holder supply rate and price. Using raw Bitcoin Magazine Pro API data, we examined the rate of change in long-term holder balances, categorized by wallet age. When this metric trends downward significantly, it has historically coincided with cycle peaks. Conversely, when it spikes upward, it has often marked market bottoms and periods of deep accumulation. Short-Term Shifts And Distribution Ratios To enhance the accuracy of these signals, the data can be sliced more precisely by comparing very recent entrants (0–1 month holders) against those holding BTC for 1–5 years. This age band comparison provides more frequent and real-time insights into distribution patterns. Figure 5: An age band holder distribution ratio provides valuable market insights. We find that sharp drops in the ratio of 1–5 year holders relative to newer participants have historically aligned with Bitcoin tops, meanwhile, rapid increases in the ratio signal that more BTC is flowing into the hands of seasoned investors is often a precursor to major price rallies. Ultimately, monitoring long-term investor behavior is one of the most effective ways to gauge market sentiment and the sustainability of price movements. Long-term holders historically outperform short-term traders by buying during fear and holding through volatility. By examining the age-based distribution of BTC holdings, we can gain a clearer view of potential tops and bottoms in the market, without relying solely on price action or short-term sentiment. Conclusion As it stands, there is only a minor level of distribution among long-term holders, nowhere near the scale that historically signals cycle tops. Profit-taking is occurring, yes, but at a pace that appears entirely sustainable and typical of a healthy market environment. Given the current stage of the bull cycle and the positioning of institutional and retail participants, the data suggests we are still within a structurally strong phase, with room for further price growth as new capital flows in. For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. This post Are Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Starting to Sell? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

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