Early July opened with BTC punching above $110K amid the second-largest short wipe-out of 2025. Meanwhile, ETH can’t seem to clear $2,600. The backdrop isn’t just chart-pattern hype—it’s an unprecedented mix of:
Put together, the macro-political narrative may matter as much as hash-rate or moving averages.
More than $110 million in bearish positions were liquidated within an hour as BTC broke $109K. Liquidations often snowball into “forced buys,” converting bearish leverage into spot demand—one reason bulls see $112K–$116K as the next target.
Size & Scope: Roughly $3.3 trillion in tax cuts, military spending, and border-security outlays, offset by deep cuts to healthcare and green-energy programs
Crypto Angle: Sections within the bill direct the Treasury to modernise payment laws and form a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Status: The bill has passed the Senate, with the House expected to finalise and send it to President Trump by July 4
Elon Musk calls the bill “utterly insane and destructive,” warning it would kill millions of future-tech jobs and balloon the deficit. He’s even threatened to back primary challengers against Republican supporters of the bill.
Market Impact: If the bill is signed, bulls expect a "money printer go BRR" narrative to push Bitcoin higher. Musk’s lobbying may delay or soften the bill’s climate rollback sections—important for ETH-linked sustainability tokens.
The U.S. has officially lifted restrictions on exporting advanced chip-design software to China. This move is a major win for global tech collaboration and especially benefits companies behind Bitcoin mining infrastructure.
The rollback lowers the risk of supply-chain disruptions and helps keep mining costs stable, which is bullish for Bitcoin’s long-term price sustainability.
Trump has directly called on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to resign, calling him “too late” to act on inflation and accusing him of hurting the economy.
A possible Powell resignation could signal a shift toward lower interest rates and looser monetary policy—both bullish for crypto markets.
Scenario Impacts:
Despite Bitcoin's dominance, Ethereum is trading flat around $2,600. However, momentum may build as Trump Media's dual Bitcoin-Ethereum ETF filing progresses.
The proposed structure allocates 75% to BTC and 25% to ETH, potentially driving institutional capital flows into Ethereum once approved.
If Powell exits or if the ETF gets greenlit, ETH could ride a second wave that narrows the BTC/ETH performance gap.
| Timeframe | Target | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | $112K–$116K | Momentum plus lingering short interest |
| Mid-July | $120K | Legislation passage + institutional flows |
| End of July | $128K | Possible Powell resignation, ETF hype |
BTC support lies around $107K, with $103K as a deeper level. Invalidation below $101K signals a false breakout.
| Timeframe | Target | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Short-Term | $2,650–$2,850 | Follows BTC strength |
| Mid-July | $3,200 | ETF decision window opens |
| End of July | $3,500 | Powell exit + ETF approval + fresh inflows |
Breaking above $2,950 could ignite rapid movement up to the $3,200 region.
Bitcoin’s breakout above $110K isn’t just a technical story—it’s a geopolitical trade on legislation, central banking, and global cooperation. If Trump’s bill is signed and Powell steps aside, the market could enter a “risk-on” mode, driving BTC toward $120K this July.
Ethereum lags today but is well-positioned to follow, especially with a dual-asset ETF and shifting monetary policy on the horizon. In short, July could be the month politics propels crypto to its next milestone.
$BTC, $ETH, $Bitcoin, $Ethereum
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